Paper Conference

Proceedings of ASim Conference 2014: 2nd Asia conference of IBPSA-China, Japan, Korea


Annual Thermal Load Estimation Using Prior Information and Short-term Measurement Data

Tatsuya Ushiyama

Abstract: To determine the energy savings by the renewal of air conditioning equipment, a building’s cooling and heating annual load needs to be known. However, the required field measurements over a year are difficult to obtain when the building is in use. Therefore, methods need to be developed that can estimate the annual load based on short-term measurement data. To achieve this aim, we proposed a method that used a heat load calculation program. We created input from prior information and updated the input data with short-term measurement data, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the annual load estimation. This reduced parameter uncertainty by considering a priori information. The results of these thermal load calculations showed a good thermal load estimation accuracy for the same season as the measurement period and worse accuracy for a reverse season.
Keywords: Parameter estimation, Bayesian estimate
Pages: 564 - 571