Paper Conference

Proceedings of ASim Conference 2014: 2nd Asia conference of IBPSA-China, Japan, Korea

     

Development of a Simulator for Long-term Prediction of Urban Environmental Loads -Development of CO2 Unit model and Trial of Scenario-

Yuki Nishina, Daisuke Sumiyoshi, Yasunori Akashi

Abstract: In this study, CO2 emissions are calculated by multiplying the CO2 emission intensity with the amount of activity. CO2 emission intensity has been calculated as a constant number of 2010 since 2010 in the past model. Therefore, the influence of social conditions, such as widespread use of electric vehicles and closing of nuclear power plants is not included in the simulator because, it was insufficient as a prediction of accuracy of CO2 emissions after 2010. We developed a model to calculate the CO2 emission intensity in two divisions, the civilian sector and transportation sectors are influenced by social conditions. We predicted CO2 emissions and compared the calculated value of the developed model with the actual value in this paper. In addition, we studied how much CO2 emission is affected by the change of social conditions based on several scenarios using a developed simulator
Keywords: Urban, Environmental Loads, System dynamics, CO2 emissions intensity, Prediction of CO2 emissions
Pages: 578 - 585
Paper:
asim2014_122_c1-28-325