Conference Paper
Proceedings of ASim Conference 2016: 3rd Asia conference of IBPSA-China, Japan, Korea
Long term prediction system of urban CO2 emission for Supporting the Reduction Policies. : Parts 3. Coupling of Multiple City Models
Long term prediction system of urban CO2 emission for Supporting the Reduction Policies. : Parts 3. Coupling of Multiple City Models
T. Ueno, D. Sumiyoshi, Y. Akashi, H. Takaguchi, J. Lim, J. Lee, K. Maruyama, Y. BabaAbstract: In order to develop a long-term vision for reduction of urban environmental loads, it
is effective to make a long-term prediction simulator of environmental loads (energy
consumption and CO2 emissions amount) as an evaluation tool for environmental
policies. Therefore, we made a simulator for Fukuoka city using system dynamics and
evaluated the effect of some environmental measures as the first step of our research.
The purpose of this paper is to generalize the simulator to enable its application in
various other cities as the second step of this research. So our model was conceived to
be transferable. Incorporated previous research includes (Maruyama et al. 2016, Jieun
et al. 2016) a study on CO2 Emission Reduction Effects by ZEB/ZEH and
Next-generation vehicles, and a Study on CO2 Emission Reduction Effects by Subsidy.
In this part, we made a new sector for coupling multiple cities, and considered the
effect on surrounding cities from the environmental policies of big cities.
The paper is organized as follows: The first section gives the purpose for coupling
multiple cities. The second section addresses development and the accuracy
verification results of the coupling sector. It compares the calculation results of the
simulator and actual values from 1990 to 2010. The simulation results had small
errors, but it was able to capture actual values. In the third section we described the
calculation results intended for Fukuoka City and Kasuga City by applying some
policies, and compared each results. We compared CO2 emissions applying each
scenario from 2010 to 2050 and confirmed which scenario is more effective for
reducing CO2 emissions by 2050.
* Corresponding author email: ueno@energy.arch.kyushu-u.ac.jp Keywords: System Dynamics, General model, Scenario Studies, A Large-scale City, Multi-city CouplingPaper: