Paper Conference

Proceedings of ASim Conference 2016: 3rd Asia conference of IBPSA-China, Japan, Korea

     

Long term prediction system of urban CO2 emission for Supporting the Reduction Policies. : Parts 3. Coupling of Multiple City Models

T. Ueno, D. Sumiyoshi, Y. Akashi, H. Takaguchi, J. Lim, J. Lee, K. Maruyama, Y. Baba

Abstract: In order to develop a long-term vision for reduction of urban environmental loads, it is effective to make a long-term prediction simulator of environmental loads (energy consumption and CO2 emissions amount) as an evaluation tool for environmental policies. Therefore, we made a simulator for Fukuoka city using system dynamics and evaluated the effect of some environmental measures as the first step of our research. The purpose of this paper is to generalize the simulator to enable its application in various other cities as the second step of this research. So our model was conceived to be transferable. Incorporated previous research includes (Maruyama et al. 2016, Jieun et al. 2016) a study on CO2 Emission Reduction Effects by ZEB/ZEH and Next-generation vehicles, and a Study on CO2 Emission Reduction Effects by Subsidy. In this part, we made a new sector for coupling multiple cities, and considered the effect on surrounding cities from the environmental policies of big cities. The paper is organized as follows: The first section gives the purpose for coupling multiple cities. The second section addresses development and the accuracy verification results of the coupling sector. It compares the calculation results of the simulator and actual values from 1990 to 2010. The simulation results had small errors, but it was able to capture actual values. In the third section we described the calculation results intended for Fukuoka City and Kasuga City by applying some policies, and compared each results. We compared CO2 emissions applying each scenario from 2010 to 2050 and confirmed which scenario is more effective for reducing CO2 emissions by 2050. * Corresponding author email: ueno@energy.arch.kyushu-u.ac.jp
Keywords: System Dynamics, General model, Scenario Studies, A Large-scale City, Multi-city Coupling
Paper:
asim2016_264