Paper Conference

Proceedings of BauSim Conference 2014: 5th Conference of IBPSA-Germany and Austria


Exploring the predictive potential of probabilistic occupancy models

F. Tahmasebi, A. Mahdavi

Abstract: Building performance is influenced by occupants' presence and actions. Knowledge of occupants' future presence and behavior in buildings is of central importance to the implementation efforts concerning predictive building systems control strategies. Specifically, prediction of occupants' presence in buildings represents a necessary condition for predicting their interactions with building systems. In the present contribution, we focus on evaluation of probabilistic occupancy models to explore the potential of using past monitored data in predicting future presence of occupants. Toward this end, we selected a university campus office area, which is equipped with a monitoring infrastructure and includes a number of open and closed offices. For the purpose of this study, we used monitored occupancy data and two previously developed stochastic occupancy models to predict the occupancy profiles on a daily basis. The predictions were then evaluated via comparison with monitored daily occupancy profiles. To conduct the model evaluation in a rigorous manner, a number of specific evaluation statistics were deployed. Thus, the results facilitate a discussion of the potential and limitations of predicting building occupants' future presence patterns based on past monitoring data.
Pages: 48 - 52