Paper Conference

Proceedings of BauSim Conference 2014: 5th Conference of IBPSA-Germany and Austria


Dynamic uncertainty analysis of the buidling energy performance in city districts

S. Stinner, R. Streblow, D. Müller

Abstract: This paper shows the application of uncertainty analysis methods in building performance simulation to a city district. In the energetic evaluation of city districts, every house has its own uncertainties concerning user behavior and building physics. When analyzing an existing city district with very low information about the building structure, uncertainties concerning the state of renovation add to the uncertainties which already exist if the building itself is well known. The central point of this paper is the analysis of these uncertainties for a generic city district. The detailed analysis of a city district requires a great deal of computation capacity. Therefore, a Quasi-Monte-Carlo (QMC) approach is used to keep the computational effort in reasonable limits. The necessary number of simulations to ensure a sufficient result is analyzed. It is figured out that at least 64 simulations are necessary to have a sufficient reproducibility of the dynamics in heat demand. The uncertainty in the total heat demand is quite low, while the uncertainty in the dynamics varies during the year. The relative uncertainty is much higher in summer times when the heat demand is very low.
Pages: 656 - 663