Paper Conference

Proceedings of Building Simulation 2009: 11th Conference of IBPSA

     

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIMULATOR FOR THE URBAN ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD PREDICTION USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS

Tomohiro Takai, Toshiyuki Watanabe, Yasunori Akashi, Masato Miyata, Tadahide Sugita, Ayu Terachi

DOI: https://doi.org/10.26868/25222708.2009.1413-1420
Abstract: In this study we are investigating the urban environment, including complicated social dynamics, as the “urban system”. We have developed a simulator which can predict the environmental load for a city, comprised mainly of buildings, over the medium and long term. In this paper we describe the development of this simulator and verify its accuracy by comparing the calculated values with real data, investigating the population, housing, non-residential building, traffic and environment sectors, all elements of the simulator OBJECTIVES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE SIMULATOR In a city and buildings which support a basis for human life, resources and energy are consumed and waste products are inevitably discharged. At the July 2008 Toyako summit a shared goal of cutting at least 50% of global greenhouse gas emissions was agreed. As a result the amount of resources devoted to “Post-Kyoto Protocol” activities in city planning and architecture has increased greatly. In Japan various technologies for carbon reduction have been developed in the past, but total energy expenditure from year to year keeps increasing. Almost 40% of the energy consumption of a typical city occurs due to the construction and daily operation of buildings. Existing top-down goal setting and current technologies have limitations for the development of sustainable cities and buildings in the future. So bottom-up methodologies which urge changes to behavior on an individual level in order to effect larger changes to the civic environment, and investigation into which energy technologies can be disseminated, how they can be spread and what social systems and the economic backing is necessary for spreading them, are becoming more important. In order to facilitate such methodologies, prediction of the environmental load, energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, and the effect of environmental load reduction measures, various energy technologies, and economic backing targeted to the urban system is important. It is also necessary to support the planning and execution of effective measures for developing sustainable cities and buildings. Although various control and social measures for developing sustainable cities have been taken up until now, there are no tools or methodologies for determining long-term predictions of environmental load in the whole of a city and its buildings and thus direction of government policy in various areas has perhaps not had a sound enough scientific basis. We have applied various energy technologies to buildings and have evaluated statistically the effects of their
Pages: 1413 - 1420
Paper:
bs2009_1413_1420