Paper Conference

Proceedings of Building Simulation 2011: 12th Conference of IBPSA


Risk Analysis Of Energy-Efficiency Projects Based On Bayesian Calibration Of Simulation Models

Yeonsook Heo, Godfried Augenbroe, Ruchi Choudhary

Abstract: This paper presents a risk analysis method based on Bayesian calibration of building energy models. The Bayesian approach enables probabilistic outputs from the energy model, which are used to quantify risks associated with investing in energy conservation measures in existing buildings. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology to support energy saving contracts in the context of the ESCO industry. A case study illustrates the importance of quantifying relative risks by comparing the probabilistic outputs derived from the Bayesian approach to standard practices endorsed by International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol and ASHRAE guideline 14.
Pages: 2579 - 2586