Conference Paper

Proceedings of Building Simulation 2019: 16th Conference of IBPSA

A Framework for Understanding the Uncertainty Across Energy Model Stages and Methodologies

Patrick Alan Pease, Nada Tarkhan, Chan Mi Hwang
Arup, United States of America

DOI: https://doi.org/10.26868/25222708.2019.210649
Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the methodologies employed in early stage modelling and to capture the deviations from final Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) models. The research has focused on providing a framework to better understand how energy model results will change as the project, and model progresses. The goal is to ultimately gain insight into the sources of these deviations across building energy end uses and to learn from correlations between assumptions made and end use results. The data set was generated from projects that have achieved LEED certification as the final model. The early stage models were created based on a standardized methodology formed as part of this research. The novelty of this research lies in understanding the sources of discrepancy in the models and proposing methods of enhancing accuracy throughout the process while building more robust, repeatable and shareable modelling approaches.
Keywords: Energy database, Early stage energy assessments, simulation workflows, emerging energy modelling methodologies
Pages: 4586 - 4593
Paper: