Paper Conference

Proceedings of Building Simulation 2021: 17th Conference of IBPSA


Integration of probabilistic methods and parametric tools for performance-based building design decision making

Fatemeh Shahsavari, Wei Yan
Texas A&M University, United States of America

Abstract: The building performance simulation tools are useful in the field of building design decision-making and provide results but mostly fail to deal with uncertainties. In this research, the integration of the Monte Carlo method and Revit Application Programming Interface (API) is performed to develop a probabilistic method for performance-based building design decision-making. This method supports the evaluation of competing design options, considering existing uncertainties. Two building design test cases are developed for the demonstration and testing of the proposed method. In one of the test cases, there are discrepancies between deterministic and probabilistic simulation results. This research concludes that the ranking order of design options obtained from the probabilistic method is possible to be different from what a conventional deterministic method may suggest. This fact can significantly affect the outcome of design decision-making in choosing the final design options.
Keywords: Building performance simulation, uncertainty analysis, design decision making, expected value, expected utility.
Pages: 1521 - 1528