Paper Conference

Proceedings of Building Simulation 2021: 17th Conference of IBPSA


Bayesian approach to accounting for uncertain heating system efficiency in co-heating tests

Sarah Juricic, Simon Rouchier
UMR 5271 Univ. Savoie Mont-Blanc CNRS, France

Abstract: Thermal characterisation of the building envelope from on-board monitoring, such as integrated coheating, face the challenge of uncertain heating system efficiency. Whereas frequentist methods cannot account for its uncertainty when estimating heat transfer properties, this paper proposes a Bayesian approach to do so and illustrates it with data from a co-heating test under uncertainty. A Bayesian estimation of the Heat Transfer Coefficient shows a wider uncertainty than with a least squares approach, and better represents the actual state of knowledge. Bayesian modelling constitutes a promising, integrated and reasonably fast approach to deal with the many uncertainties of on-board thermal characterisation.
Keywords: HTC estimation, heating system efficiency, integrated co-heating, Structural identifiability, Bayesian approach
Pages: 439 - 446