Paper Conference

Proceedings of Building Simulation 2021: 17th Conference of IBPSA


A comparison of performance of three variance-based sensitivity analysis methods on an urban-scale building energy model

Pamela Jane Fennell, Ivan Korolija, Paul Ruyssevelt
UCL, United Kingdom

Abstract: The vast number of different inputs required to model a complex urban environment makes it impossible to precisely quantify all inputs and complex energy flows within models must be simplified to achieve tractable solutions. As a result, the outputs of these models inevitably have a significant range of variation. Without understanding these limits of inference resulting policy advice is inherently defective. Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. Despite a well-established body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, very limited work has been done to apply these tools to urban scale models. This study presents a systematic comparison of a range of three different variance-based SA methods to a high resolution, dynamic thermal simulation of a mixed-use neighbourhood in North London. Accuracy, processing time and complexity of application of each SA method is evaluated to provide guidance which can inform the application of these methods to other urban and largescale building energy models.
Keywords: UBEM, Global Sensitivity Analysis, EnergyPlus
Pages: 2195 - 2202