Paper Conference

Proceedings of Building Simulation 2021: 17th Conference of IBPSA


Global sensitivity analysis of a bottom-up building stock energy model

Sebastian Forthuber, Lukas Kranzl, Andreas Müller
TU Wien, Austria

Abstract: Building stock models are increasingly applied for deriving policy recommendations in achieving climate neutrality of the building sector. However, they are associated with significant uncertainties, which usually are not systematically analysed. We apply the elementary effects method on scenarios calculated with the model Invert/EE-Lab. Among others, we identified parameters relevant for the decision making algorithm within the model as most influential. This has implications on the interpretation of results, in particular for the future mix of energy carriers which show very similar costs and attractiveness. The systematic application of global sensitivity analyses can help to improve the understanding of building stock modelling results and better substantiate related policy conclusions.
Keywords: Building stock simulation, uncertainty analysis, modelling up to national level
Pages: 636 - 643