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Proceedings of BSO Conference 2016: Third Conference of IBPSA-England

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Study On District Energy Consumption Prediction Model Of Office Blocks In Cold Region, China With Simulation And Regression Analysis

Sun Cheng, Zhang Ran

Abstract: Prediction of district energy consumption plays an important part in building energy conservation. In this study, the simulation method is adopted to predict the energy consumption of standard building, and the statistical data combined with Bayesian model for optimized forecasting district energy consumption is also used. A sample survey is first conducted in Harbin. And, standard buildings sets are developed according to classification employing orthogonal experiment. Moreover, simulation is performed based on typical morphological data set derived from the sample survey. The Bayesian model is adopted to optimize method of area superposition with energy consumption value of standard buildings and statistical data. And finally, the prediction model for district energy consumption and a simplified energy consumption formula for office district are obtained by the integrated method. Compared with other prediction methods, the optimized approach has a significant influence on accuracy in terms of error analysis. The method proposed in this study can accurately predict the district energy consumption of office building blocks in the planning stage where detailed building information is lacked, to guide the energy planning, project design, product development etc.
Pages: 203 - 210
Paper:
bso2016_1070