Paper Conference

Proceedings of eSim 2004: 3th Conference of IBPSA-Canada

     

ASSESSING THE SIGNIFICANCE OF DESIGN CHANGES WHEN SIMULATING BUILDING PERFORMANCE INCLUDING THE AFFECTS OF UNCERTAIN INPUT DATA

Iain Macdonald

Abstract: Computer simulation of buildings is currently used to predict their performance and the effect of design changes. The effect on predictions caused by uncertainties in the input data is rarely assessed. However, if it is quantified the performance of the simulated building can be described as a range of possibilities given the inherent uncertainty in the input data. This paper takes the process further, assessing the effect of uncertainty for an initial model and a model incorporating a design change. It then describes how to use statistical tests to quantify the significance of the change in performance: i.e. has the design change produced a real difference to the buildings performance, or is the change in performance lost in the error band of the predictions. In this paper the method of quantifying the overall effect of uncertainties on predictions and how to differentiate between a significant and insignificant change is described. This is then applied to two case studies to exemplify the importance of quantifying the effect of uncertainties.
Pages: 93 - 100
Paper:
esim2004_12