Paper Conference

Proceedings of eSim 2008: 5th Conference of IBPSA-Canada

     

ENERGY AND HEALTH IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING AND HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS IN MONTREAL: A CASE STUDY INTRODUCING A METHODOLOGY BASED ON STATISTICAL MATCHING OF RECORDED WEATHER DATA

Michel Parent, François Cantin, Denis Bourgeois

Abstract: General circulation models (GCMs) suggest that Québec, as in many locations, is likely to experience warmer conditions in the near future due to global warming. GCMs generally predict monthly temperature increases of 1°C to 2°C over the historic monthly averages (e.g. past 40 years) for the southern part of the province. In addition, urban heat island (UHI) phenomena have a compounding effect on global warming trends, further increasing anticipated temperatures in cities, e.g. in downtown Montreal. In northern climates such as Québec, it is increasingly recognized that global warming, compounded by UHI effects, would decrease on-site heating requirements and increase airconditioning use-but to what extent? Building energy simulation is useful in investigating the energy impacts of global and regional climate change, as long as new weather files can be appropriately generated from forecasted monthly changes (e.g. monthly increases in temperature or precipitation). Such an effort is not straightforward, as the uncertainty in current GCM and UHI forecasts is quite significant in predicting anything than monthly shifts in temperature. This raises questions on the detailed effects of general warming trends, e.g. frequencies in heat waves, peak night/day temperatures? This paper proposes a methodology of generating suitable hourly weather data for future climate scenarios by statistically matching archival data to anticipated monthly shifts in temperature, similar to the Sandia Method. A similar methodology is proposed to take into account UHI effects. A case study illustrates the effects of global warming trends and UHI, in broad terms, on residential energy use and on thermal stress in the Montreal region.
Pages: 227 - 234
Paper:
esim2008_227_234