Paper Conference

2022 Building Performance Analysis Conference and SimBuild co-organized by ASHRAE and IBPSA-USA


Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator Application to Heat Waves

Daniel Villa, Juan Carvallo, Carlo Bianchi, Sang Lee

Abstract: Heat waves are increasing in severity, duration, and frequency, making historical weather patterns insufficient for assessments of building resilience. This work introduces a stochastic weather generator called the multiscenario extreme weather simulator (MEWS) that produces credible future heat waves. MEWS calculates statistical parameters from historical weather data and then shifts them using climate projections of increasing severity and frequency. MEWS is demonstrated using the EnergyPlus medium office prototype model for climate zone 4B using five climate scenarios to 2060. The results show how changes in climate and heat waves affect electric loads, peak loads, and thermal comfort with uncertainty.
Pages: 49 - 58