Conference Paper

Proceedings of SimBuild Conference 2024

     

Leveraging ResStock to Improve Utility Decarbonization Program Grid Impact Modelling: Estimating the effect of heat pumps for space and water heating in eastern Oklahoma

Hamza Zaheer 1, David B. Pudleiner 1, Kerry R. Rowland 2, Pranav Gupta 1
1 ICF
2 Public Service of Oklahoma

Abstract: Dealing with an aging building stock that is reliant on natural gas for primary energy can seem like a daunting task for utilities as they start down the path to achieving national-level decarbonization goals. Converting the two largest residential energy end uses – space and water heating – to electricity using Air Source Heat Pumps (ASHP) is quickly becoming a preferred decarbonization pathway in many jurisdictions (Reyna et al.2022). This, in combination with the upcoming IRA funding for heat pumps, is driving many utilities to offer new or increased incentives for heat pumps through utility programs. However, the conventional utility method of calculating the electricity and fuel impacts of heat pumps is still reliant on using Technical Reference Manual (TRM) engineering algorithms that are often inaccurate and do not explicitly consider important building characteristics like insulation and air leakage conditions of the home. Building energy modeling is a potential solution to the problem but has historically not been utilized for existing residential stock modeling due to the lack of prototypical starting models and the subsequent large upfront effort for model creation. NREL’s ResStock tool changes all of this and provides a clear pathway for generating electrification measure impact estimates that are anchored in the building stock characteristics of a utility territory and calibrated on an aggregate scale to metered data (Wilson 2017). This paper presents a novel methodology utilizing ResStock that is more accurate than the current simplistic energy savings estimation approach used by utilities.
Keywords: Electrification, Decarbonization, Heat Pumps, ResStock, Emissions
Pages: 19 - 26
Paper:

simbuild2024_2244