Paper Conference

Proceedings of uSim Conference 2018: 1st uSim Conference of IBPSA-Scotland



Yohei Yamaguchi, Yuka Kambayashi, Takeshi Okada, Ayako Taniguchi-Matsuoka, Yoshiyuki Shimoda

Abstract: Activity-based residential energy demand modelling, in which activity of household members is stochastically modelled and energy demand is quantified based on simulated activity, is useful for various applications, since the model enables to enhance analytical functions as it replicates the structure in which energy demand is determined in the real society. Instead of its usefulness, methods to apply activity-based modeling in community-scale energy demand modelling has not been well established. Based on this background, this paper proposes a method to link the composition of households living in communities with household activity modelling parameters as a component of an activity model as a component of a community scale energy demand model. The developed model first generates households living in simulated community based on population census. This household generation process enables to replicate the composition of households in assumed community. Then, parameters of activity modelling such as probability undertaking activtiies at each time day were given to each household member living in simulated community based on logistic regression models developed based on time use data. The logistic regression model was designed to consider demographics and household characteristics as predictor variables. As a result, the composition of households in simulated community is reflected in the activity modelling. A case study demonstrated how differences in household composition affect time use of people living in Japanese pin-code districts in a city.
Pages: 48 - 53