@inproceedings{simbuild2024_2240,
	doi = {},
	url = {https://publications.ibpsa.org/conference/paper/?id=simbuild2024_2240},
	year = {2024},
	month = {May},
	publisher = {IBPSA-USA},
	author = {Richard Walter Fenrich},
	title  = {Uncertainty Propagation in Building Analysis with Truncated Taylor Polynomials},
	booktitle = {Proceedings of SimBuild Conference 2024},
	volume  = {11},
	isbn = {},
	address  = {Denver, Colorado},
	series  = {IBPSA-USA Building Simulation Conference},
	pages = {148--158},
	abstract = {We propose a non-probabilistic method for propagating uncertainties represented as intervals through a building performance simulation. The method only requires a single simulation without any prior computation. It is based on Taylor model arithmetic, and solves previous issues with interval-based methods such as the dependency problem by using truncated Taylor polynomials. As a result, the method provides an approximate estimate of uncertainty. However, initial results compare favorably in accuracy to Monte Carlo. Results are shown for a cubic function with 10,000 uncertain variables, and transient thermal simulations of a box with static and dynamic external boundary conditions. The proposed method is promising for efficient non-probabilistic uncertainty quantification in building performance simulation and warrants further investigation and refinement.},
	issn = {},
	Organisation = {IBPSA-USA},
	Editors = {}
}